Gosh its been quite a Ride here in Bear land the past several years. Up and Down.. and there is so much more to come. I have learned so much, and yet so little; that at times I embarrass myself like I did today over at Hot Options Babe. I have been learning how to trade options a new way, and I am doing it on Paper, but there are times when I get a weee should we say excited and I forget and I start typing my thoughts in at $SPX ground level and not at the options level... dumb meets dumber..LOL! So, my apologies to the Staff and members. Today we hit the 200 day mv.ave. and it seemed to me it was important enough to post and I think I am right. Support held there and I think we might have Finished that "B" Wave, of wave "C", that I was ranting about last night. We could also be in a 4th wave.... of wave "B". so do not forget that either. either way, there is a high chance that we move sideways or higher by Friday... it will burn the skin off some of the shorts.. "ME", but, me thinks we will go higher fast, then turn, and I am looking for 1050 right before our Washington Leaders take a vacation...on June 1st. So, I will be adding to my short positions as we climb Higher... So, to give you some #'s that I have done... on the 1st wave down... for retracements.OK>
$SPX HIGH 1219.80 LOW 1065.89 top minus bottom = 153.91 Now... divide that by 8 = 19.24
then we add 1065.89 + 19.24 = 1/8=1085.13
1085.13+ 19.24 = 2/8=1104.37
1104.37+ 19.24 = 3/8=1123.61
1123.61 + 19.24= 4/8=1142.85
1142.85+19.24= 5/8=1162.09'
1162.09+19.24= 6/8=1181.33
1181.33+19.24= 7/8=1200.57
1200.57+19.28= 8/8=1219.81
Alright that is a quick way to come up with very close and sometimes extremly accurate support and Fib retracement #'s also something I learned at Murry Math..hee hee... its all a part of the Elliot/Gann relationship that I am still working on and probably will for yrs to come... Hence A's old site...and hopefully if I am still alive I will have time to really figure it all out when I retire in just a few short yrs..LOL! if the stock mkt is still around...OH well... Pug has a wonderful 4pm update that kinda has what I have.. he is a bit more bullish than I am.. but I still agree that we need to go up. EWT update has the same but cautions all to not sell a thing to the downside... it could turn and burn again... and it could... both Pug and EWT have 1126 area and that is close to our 3/8ths move... I myself have to stick with 61.8%... area.. 1162, if we are in a C wave up of wave 2... thats my call. but remember what I said last night... sometimes B waves love to go below the origin of Wave 1... so it could reach the 1050 area just in that wave alone...then we shoot up like a rocket into C of 2.... what do you think of that...???? OK, I gotta get to work...later>L
May 1st, 2024: SP-500 Chart Update
10 hours ago
I am holding my shorts strong. Will scale to 100% short into whatever rally comes...
ReplyDeletebut guess what I expect a wave 3 of 3 of 3 to come tomorrow and might not get the chance much to add. If not then my count is wrong and we're doing C up to 1045 area.
I heard a very good story today (I knew it when I was younger but had forgotten about it).
ReplyDeleteYou know the one with the emperor that had the invisible clothes, but if you do not see the clothes then you are stupid? :) .. well that's what the bulls are saying about this market.
You mean you do not see the bull market? A little more we would be back to SPX 1500+, does not matter all the ills left in the economy. it will somehow magically work itself out and very soon too. Greed is back L. everyone looking for that bottom and they might get a short term one soon.
R, Nice call again.. I had to go look in the mirror to make sure my clothes where still on.. hell, if they where off, no one would notice anyway!..LOL! I choked though.. I sold a wee bit of my short QID yesterday.. thank god I still have over half my portfolio to the dark side...Thanks R I appreciate your support.. have a great day make lots of $$ you deserve it!>L
ReplyDeleteHi L,
ReplyDeleteI scaled back little bit of shorts today. still 40% in.
I am not sure if this is 3 of 3 of 3 which it have some more downside .. or 3 of 5 of which should be close to finishing up. If it is latter then rather scale back more to load up higher in 1-2 weeks.
R
L,
ReplyDeleteMy target is 1050-1060 .. I will scale out big there .. keep 10% around though.
Look to add them back above at about 1120-50.
lightening up L .. 50 Week MA for SPX stopped decline last time may 6th, today it did also. maybe another bounce.
ReplyDeleteI am lightning up to get back in at 1140-50
"R", I loaded up even more after you e'd me.. I went over to pug's and checked his update he put up and looking at it was like a magical experience.. I realized that we where about to go into 3 of 3...of wave 1... Yummmy..... OK I am exhausted.. got to bed at 10, back up at 1 and gotta get some sleep can't miss any more work...need cash...later>L OH I won't be doing an update.. Ithinkyou know where you are!..give me your thoughts though.. I need confirmation of where we are.. just for my concioussssssss..thanks L
ReplyDelete