You might recall..hint I wrote about the EXPANDING TRIANGLE.. check out the above chart from PUG.. Now I had this possibility the other day.. and it did concern me then, and now the EU has just bailed out the Portugese, and Greecians. This has just turned the tide... and Wall Street just set most of the options traders up for a major loss. As I am typing it is 9:21pm est.time.. and Nikkei is bouncing back hard up 129. Now our futures are up too over 200 pts on dow and 25pts on S/P. I have another chart from Tim knight to put up and he is showing the major resistance lying at 1150.. and I have that too. So, the only way the Exp.Tri. theory can be good.. is to bust 1150 on S/P.... so this is our spot to watch and be ready for... I can not go long until this is breached... So, lets go over the scenerio's right now... 1) we could be in wave "C" and we have broken some serious support levels, and currently down over 600pts in less than a week..on dow. we should expect a rally from such a quick and powerful fall. I had mentioned that we would suffer from serious volitility in the near term picture.. and this move in the morning could really just be a good start to what I had mentioned last night in my update.. Many traders will suffer severe loss's and want to jump off the Talahassee bridge! Do Not become a victim of this.. if you can not handle the pressure get out and stay oout!... Cash is King anyway.. There are other MAJOR headlines besides this bail-out... CHINA has fallen over 6%... but they have CPI out on Tues.. or Mon night for us...They are in serious trouble too.. they have a Housing bubble, and have to react to their dollar Rates.. and they are affraid of the U.S. going bankrupt they have alot on the line.. their econonmy is very unbalanced... and they have high unemployment too! I guess they do not have to do anything really, they have enough slaves to keep them going. In this wave(C) we will have ups an downs.. and major moves... I really do like the Point and Figure chart
http://books.google.com/books?id=Nb9rCUTHX_sC&lpg=PA143&ots=C10rOtzSx1&dq=inverted%20catapult%20point%20and%20figure%20chart%3F&pg=PA138#v=onepage&q=inverted%20catapult%20point%20and%20figure%20chart?&f=false
if that does not work google books has a copy online... page 138 of De Villiers and Taylor on Point and Figure Charting book is by Victor Devilliers and Owen Taylor.
This chart is what I had written about some time back.. that in the 1929 crash we retraced 63% and guess what ... we came dame close to that figure again... History does repeat itself doesn't it.. thats because we Humans are greedy and out thought process has not changed a bit...LOL! You have to smile :) now we are more modernized have faster cars and play war games online..but.. Chess is still the same, and so is Chinese Checker's!
OK, scenerio #2 is the EXP.TRI. and it has weight, please do not forget the 1150 support... or 63% fib retracement #. 50% is at 1136 and we need to break that first.. here is a nice video that I found that show's all of the above....
http://www.ratiotrading.com/2010/05/fibonacci-levels-on-sp-500/ OK, I have nothing else to say... but Good luck in the Morning... If you are short like myself.. we may take it painfully at first but I feel that it really could be a buying opportunity on the short side... Oh, Gold and Silver... I hold some SLV... but we are closing in on gold's 1250 mark... this acts as support.. so I think we could see a pull back at that point... OK, have a great Monday... >L
SHARP counter ... is very normal. Anything else? could be but I would be surprised if this thing goes past DOW 10750 or SPX 1180 (or even 1150-ish. I might go 100% to the dark side there.
ReplyDeletecool R, I like your thinking..
ReplyDeleteR, right now I have us in a possible 4 of wave A, up... or Wave C... I have to go with the A wave first... what do you think? we broke the 61.8% retrace of the wave down...so your 1180 area is the next hot spot.. later>L
ReplyDeleteL, I am 30% to the dark side today .. I am hoping to be 100% at 1183 if it gives it to me.
ReplyDeleteThis thing totally looks like counter, and feels like wave 4 of 3 of 1 down. Loads of resistance is waiting this thing. At the least there is a retest of thise lows at FEb lows ; then a tradeable rally back to 1150-ish .. then the fall in earnest into late summer early fall. I hope we do not miss that. That's how I am playing it now. Bests to you.
L, I am at 65% and praying.
ReplyDeleteL,
ReplyDeleteDid we start b of 2 .. or 1 of 3 today? That would be the big question?
R, I would have to say we either in B of 2, or we are in a 4.. of wave A, because we could have only finished wave 3 did you get that?>L
ReplyDeleteOf course we could have started Wave B. too.. so now we have 3 scenerio's either way it could be any of the above..>L
ReplyDeleteHey R, did you check out the futures after hours? Oh I think you should be very happy!.. nice job.. wish I could have been awake for the kill too... I overslept..but hey we got plenty of time... I think.. Prechter's new theorist is out.. I will go read it and update you with it...>L
ReplyDeleteR, Prech, says we have topped same chart fromt he PNF i gave yest. he calls it a Three Peaks and a doomed house.. cute huh!... He says it is in his Beautiful Pictures book, I don't have that book..He says this is the year, that we drop in 2010 and that we peaked on the 26th of april..Quote.."Fibonacci time relationships suggest taht the biggest stock market top formation of all time is ending in 2010 and that a price collapse will last 6 years. until 2016" he goes on to talk about the V bull mkt from 74-2000 and the value of real $ plummeted into the greatest credit expansion in the history of the world.. and that we really have been in a silent crash..we basically go back all the way to 1929.. is that funny.. so everything goes belly up just too much to type R.. I will try to go over it better .. in the morning.. try to check for my update when you get up. before you head off to work.. later>L
ReplyDeleteI will L. Thx
ReplyDelete