Stimulus Plan...????

I have been trying to find out when the stimulus plan ends,,, does anyone know?  if you find out about when.. the only time frame I have right now is Sept 2010.  Now why do I need that... well, that is the end of this Rally, and what a rally it has been. I am sorry I only got a small portion of it... now will we have corrections.. yes and we are still due for that one I have wished for for about a month now... and I think everyone is ready for one..butttttt  we have not broken any major or important support lines. If Forkaholic was around his fork would show we have remained in the larger channel,(found a nice chart above) so until that channel is broken, we remain going up.. so we have a full moon on the 30th.. and I am looking for  a new High again... and most would be looking for a correction.. even though all roads lead to a correction... coin toss.. but the good news is we hit 90% bulls.. on that exuberance day... not good enough... so, my only advice is that there is a  great possiblility that we have a correction(I know I contradict myself, but you all know I just want the big drop NOW!), but it is only a good buying opportunity if it bounces off the larger channel... The only other thing that I noticed was that the E-Mini's(1156) fell lower than the $SPX(1161).  I usually find this as a precurser to what is a further move south for the $SPX... so maybe we have a small slope of hope..LOL! have a wonderful.. Sunday...>L

Here's that Exuburance!

Ok, a day off.....LOL!

What did I tell Ya!

OK, so if I have ever been so crazed with a market it is at this time!... Reason, EXUBERANCE!!!!  is finally here!   I knew that the big $$ would come and rescue this Mt. of Milk Chocolate!... I have held back, even though I admit, I have been tempted to buy even more TZA. OH, yes I feel like the Lamb at the alter that has been sacraficed about a million times so far.. could I be wrong...Oh yes... and I guess that is the torment I am going thru... sad but true. I keep trading small moves to the upside to try and counteract the mess that I.. yes I got myself into.. buttttttt this is different..this time... I have to tell all of you that I got caught just about the same way in a heavy, heavy trade that I made back in O4", and it hurt, really bad. It took me several hard months to get those loss's back.. so you think I would have learned my lesson... well, yes, but this is fabricated $$, it magically appears to keep the false dream alive. I got out about a month ago, took that loss and traded to the upside for awhile as most of you know.. then about  a week ago, I got back in, not alot but in... took some profit the other day on the nice move down... then when we popped on Fri.. I dove back in again.... was it bad timing... "no", and some of you are saying... "SUCKER"... Yep, I guess you can say that.. and was I.. I guess I was... but,  it wasn't a bad entry at all, to tell ya my odds said that it would go up with fury.. and then the real "Suckers would be had, when it turned with a vengence, and I had that happening, well, today, if you must know... but instead today was the mad hatter.. so I am early to the party...and that is why I am posting to let you know that right now its 88% bulls , by tomorrow I am looking for 93%... and another major push higher.. so if you visit over at PUG's, you can catch his count... and great chart..  The computers over at GS have got to be turned off at this point and time... Gentlemen's agreement if you ask me.... 61.8% is at 1219.23  give or take a few ticks.. thats the Magic #.. so my strategy on the Health care bill, kinda back fired... in a way, but I have to tell ya I kinda hedged it...with QLD...Ok, I sucker'd you all with that poor trading above but hey, I got burned once before...not again... so, right now I am buying slowly to the down side... so, be careful.. we are where PUG has us...no since in me telling you just visit his site. Guys and Gals, this is a historical time in our America...the past Year, has just Flown by...because of the electricity in the air... there was always something happening somewhere!  so things are speeding up...or they seem to be in our minds... Get your Rest... do not think like the HERD right now!!!!!  Calm and Peaceful, do not get caught up in other's problems, or even your own...  This is not a NORMAL Market we are trading.... go look at guys and gals that where riding high a year ago...like Evil, and now they are depressed and worn out.  I know I kinda went there myself  reminissing(sp?) )04", but I woke up... a friend said.. the trend is your friend... yes, it normally is... and I was fighting it... but the trend must end soon... and the key is 1219.23... 1931 area, we retraced 63% and fell.. I think I mentioned that one time before... so I guess a few more ticks doesn't make much difference... just watch your $$...  I know I sound a bit confusing at times... my brain on overload... my apologizies...>L

Goodbye Evil...

One of my favorite sites "Evil Speculator", is hanging it up...sad, I will miss the way he rants on to all his "Ratts".  He will be missed. I think he as others who will continue his site,but ,  Mole, will just be hanging it up. Too bad, another good guy bites the dust. Seems that the good sites like Evil's, get really hot, and like a moth to a flame, the sites inventor's, who are really great trader's and have alot of spirit, turn a bit greedy, unfortuantley. They either stop helping traders, or they want $$$ for their services. Hey, its still a Capitalist society at the moment, and in one way I understand their need to make extra cash, but it puts a heavy burden on their shoulders, and they tend to fold their hand if you know what I mean.  The stress catches up to them and they buckle , and their trading goes to the shitter's. Hey, we all have bad day's... but carma can go bad. Sorta like our long winter we had this year!...LOL!  I said my goodbye to Mole, he will be missed. I hope he patches his dam.   OK, lets get to why you might be here!

Market Mania!.... or was it March Madness!...LOL! Lets just get one thing straight... eventually we will go down..and when we do... ouch!... will it be this morning... dam,  my indicators say,  Yes, just like the snow that covered Oklahoma....but they did not dream they would have a "Blizzard"...  could this be the big start of a Tsunami in the Markets....???   lets not get carried away, you know that Ben and Co. will come to the rescue when it breaks an important # so  that is around 1150 on S&P... I had said in an earlier post that we need to go to 1145 area and that will be some support and if we break that, then we are in the Odds of haveing started the big Kahuna!...OK futures are currently down...big for S&P but not so much for dow...7.5 s/p  47 for dow... OK, keep your fingers X'd this is all Pelosi's fault...LOL!  later L

Channels

Sorry, for not posting sooner, spring, its my favorite time of the year, right after winter... you see I like all 4 seasons...My lilly's needed some attention.. Here is a wonderful saying....


    All through the long winter, I dream of my garden.
  On the first day of spring, I dig my fingers deep into
    the soft earth. I can feel its energy, and my spirits
                             soar. ~ Helen Hayes

Being a farmers daughter, I just can't wait to get the onions and lettuce planted, and I had to get those lillies separated...its been a harsh winter. Even the paint on the barn took a beating...
Unusual weather right now, had to take advantage of it.
Back to the Market...  we have broken out of my channel on the S/P, and have fallen back inside the channel and the channel line has become resistance... the question I have been asking myself is.... was that the  wave 4 of 5, that broke the channel?  or 4 of 3 ?  Elliot wave interpretation is sometimes not fun, so, we should be getting ready to do a correction of a minor 4 so that would take us back to around the 1147-53 area,  that would take us into another triangle.... OK, thats interpretation 1....  What if we are in the ending diagonal triangle that some are talking about... there is support for this scenerio... but I am not in favor of it... my larger degree channel top that goes back to Sept. is calling and it intersects into this minor channel at around 1200 and peaks at 1212 area.. so that is the next area we will see after this smaller degree correction takes place... so that is what I see for now,,, let me know if you agree...  OK, on stocks, I like UPS, GE, IGC(i really like this little stock! India based.. might be a keeper for the long haul.. kids portfolio etc.)  Materials took a little hit today and will have a nice pull back.. so look for a good trade in that area... EXP.. RTP... so on..and one of my all time favorite stocks that has made me some $$$ MA  mastercard..., sometimes I do not mention some stocks because they are high priced, but when they bust a move they really sing, I find better price movement amongst stocks like RTP/ MA/ PCLN...etc.. these stocks can make you cry too though.. so you must be careful...but MA is currently in a nice channel trade..  OK< gotta go dig some more..have a great evening...>L

VOLUME

OK, this is what I have been waiting for, VOLUME, finallly, we have some, so the Yo, Yo, trading should begin to cease. We need to go higher to bring more volume in, and then we should start some kind of correction, will it be on St.Patty's day?...  who knows, I gotta get  a green drink though!   Oh, the luck of the ol Irish...and that is being said by bulls and bears right now... I had purchased a few shares of GE this morning, and took the profit at the bell... so not bad..for a short trade... I wish I had a few more of those...these days, but Hey, C, you've been right on this whole bull swing...congrats!  and the same if I missed anyone else on that!  I am leaving a trail of tears though....just like the Cherokee did.  They survived and so will I.... this has been  a hard market to grasp... OK, GE is still a buy, I also like UPS, but be careful, I really do see a rounding top happening in alot of stocks... and if the volume picks back up, we could see some selling start to happen fast!   will try to update Fib #'s a little later...>L   OH and go over to PUG's house and tell him how right he has been... his head might finally pop!  LOL!  he has been right on with this whole thing...dam it!..good for him  Nice Job Purdue!

Fibonacci levels

S/P Fib levels....     FIB      Price Level
                              4.25      1180.78
                               2.618    1170.27
                              1.618     1163.83
                               1.000    1159.85
                              0.618     1157.39
                              HIGH     1153.41
                               0.764     1151.89
                               0.618      1150.19
                               0.500      1150.19
                               0.382       1149.43
                               0.236       1148.49
                               LOW       1146.97
                               0.618        1142.99
                               1.000        1140.53
                               1.618        1136.55
                               2.618        1130.11
                                4.250        1119.60
These #'s are based off of Fridays moves... If we begin the final 5th wave move up...these #'s should come in handy... and if we bounce off some of these , then the correction could start soon, or sooner, futures are down right now as I type...so we could have finished the 5th already, and this minor correction could start today... we'll see... but this should be the larger correction I am looking for, and according to wkend updates from the pro's they  are calling for one too... 10-15%    so that confirmed my prediction... Yea Me, Yea, me....LOL!  we'll see won't we.. good luck all... time for a little nap>L

Don't forget the Time change!

Spring Forward!  with your clocks... we now lose an hour of sleep... and you only have around 30 days to get your taxes done...  will update later.. have a good morning..>L

Gann Friday!!!!!!!!!

I have just stayed up too long but today's trading has been fun to say the least... Up, down, up , down.. yeppy, then I stray over to the Evil spec's sitehttp://evilspeculator.com/?p=14868#disqus_thread    and low and behold.. You lucky Gann lovers today is the Jackpot....  Kokoro33 puts up these #'s

Today is trading day #256 off the 3-6-09 low(666.79) = 16sq=256

Todays high so far. 1153.41    34sq=1156

1153.41-666.79= 486.62////   22sq= 484

I hope that some of you got that today...sometime... gotta get some rest... will unleash my Doctorate Theory on all of you this wked I hope...later>L      RK, be careful on your trip, and have fun.  R, nice to see you back for even a few min's don't work too hard...  C have a good wkend...A, hope your doing OK..Everyone else..Have a great wkend...L

Mr.Vix

I of course frequent other sites just like everyone else, one of my fav's is Evil Speculator, I need to add him to my list on the right...anywho Mr. Vix is a junky like me and he added this sure fire chart...and his commentary was just snazzy!  Now I have to say that The Bear camp has just taken it to the extreme..if you know what I mean, and that is usually the way it is at times...I know, I feel his pain, a we bit... but, we did NOT make a new High in the S/P.... Yet...LOL!  I had to jump into a few things yesterday STP was one of them HBAN I had already long in... but I am already out of both.  Sometimes the short and sweet can get bitter... if you know what I mean.. so yes I have missed out on alot of this upswing, but thats trading.. like I have said the only way to get me to claim we are not bearish is to go over the 1200 mark...later>L

March Madness :)

Have you ever wondered who came up with things like Shamrocks, and Lepricahns with pots of Gold at the end of the Rainbow???  Everybody loves spring, especially if you live in the Mid-West, the thought of 60 degree days and sunshine...ohhh the Sun is finally blessing us with radiation that we just can't wait to absorb into our skin. Funny, the ave. person lives only 25,000 days or roughly 68-70 springs... Now think about that, doesn't that make you to re-think your position as a mammal on this earth. I usually start off most of my kids lessons with this scenerio.. it makes them think. I explain how our species have survived and how lucky you are to be alive that long, and they always respond with "Well, my grandma lived to be 93, my mom says I will live that long too!"  Yes you will I say back, but in my mind I just giggle, that someday, when they really realize that life takes turns and curves and changes with just simple judgements and decisions that you do not think will effect the rest of your life, but they do. So, that is why I try to help youngsters understand the importance of investing so that they have enough to live on when they turn 93!  If any of you have children, go to Minyanville, and there are several other sites for kids but I like that one the most, it is very good. Sit and listen to them, and of course make them earn their allowances, but make them invest a portion everyweek, go to the bank with them, its important even if its a quarter that is going in. They are proud to give their $$ to the teller...look what I did this week! 

Now, back to our markets.... RK, thanks for the site.. very interesting... I like data. I will use this one, Thank you again.  What kind of mess are we in, I was thinking to myself this morning, and if you look at it finally we are in the "B", wave.. the up and down like the stairs that we climb... so, where does it end... I have fond memeories of the 2003-2007 bear market rally... and this move looks alot like that monster... but, there are so many things that are different than back then....People still had jobs, and houses, and cars to get to work, they still had $$.  Now, the other difference is the Cycle degree, chart pictures never go where I need them to go, so the above chart is a chart that I have had as a scenerio for many years...square box 5 is the top of 07,  or is it?  I think it is, but it depends on where the expanding triangle started... did it start in 1999, or 2000?  that is the Question that has haunted me for years... so keep that in your mind for a minute and then look at Kenny's other chart...I have...(why i use everyone else's charts is the amount of time it would take me to do these charts I would never get a post up to any of you..LOL!)   his lines are nicely draw for this expanding triangle, if that is what it is, but I like his way of thinking... so lets keep the flow going...the only thing that I do not like is his idea that we are in a lesser degree C of wave 5 to end wave C...I think we are in a B wave right now with a correction coming...then we do a  lesser c wave down then we go back up again... this time to his top.. we could run this till next week around the 16th to the 18th for the top of either a new high, at his 1158 area or we just finish a 100% retrace of an  A,B,C Wave 2.... that one.. is  not my top pick... I like the first one best.   Then we fall, do a wave 1 down to around 1000 back up for a 2 and then down with 3... so on... I am looking for  Wave 1 of 3 to end around 870/840 area... rough estimate .... Now remember, we could only be finishing wave A of Wave B, time wise it took 17months to fall to march lows of 08, and usually we take just about the same amount of time... OK, I have to run, think about this let me know your thought...later >L

TurnOver's..

I have had just a great wkend, and I hope most of you have too.. my computer took a shit, and I was in panick mode.. took it to the local big guy, 4 days just to look at it... I left it there, then went home pouting.. the guppies know how I am about my computer, do not touch it, look, or attempt to get near it...my youngest, well, not young anymore, gets this  relic of a thing out of their closet , I get on it, and want to puke, no speed, dead, but gave me a chance to figure out what was wrong with mine, so being the fix it yourself type(my guppies could not believe I left my computer at the repair shop anyway) I got up went and got my computer back and bought two new video cards and Whaaaa laaa I am back in business... took me awhile to figure out how to get those things out of there but,, I followed the directions well. and I love my new monitor screens...these new gaming cards are awsome! 

I am sorry to tell most of you that one of my favorite sites PUGG, has gone to only weekly updates..you will have to pay if you want to follow him from now on.  Some of my favorites are leaving for the $ pay me for my knowledge and time..and I understand.  

OK, lets get to the reason we are here:  the above chart is the S/P bullish % chart, yes it is bullish, and it does show strength, but the volume from Friday was not strong at all, I have somewhere between 1.8-2.2 million traded on Friday, and that is WEAK! VERY WEAK! and that is what tonights update is about, the waiting is on... and I believe we are in a slow and tedious Turnover.... Can we go Higher...Yes.. we can......Can we go low... Yes we can.. but not right now. From what I see on all of my charts right now, even though we are Weak.. the weakness can produce strong Ill effects like Friday did.. it looks powerful  and very deceaving. Check out the MACD on this chart... actually strong, but on no volume.  Now I have a mid-day Turn tomorrow(Monday)... it can be the start of a 4th wave of wave 5 that now I think has extended... and is looking for the 1150 area... but I am also looking for the Turnover to start.. either way, we have to look at momentum  and it is on the bulls side...but that can turn on a dime.
Now, lets look at some real statistics.....  UNemployment is really at 16-21%  world new's tonight on Friday... I had to laugh when I heard it..  The goverment reported only 36 thousand  jobs lost, but they forgot to tell  the public that they fudged the #'s a we-bit.  But, ya gotta realize that we keep loosing jobs..  Where are the gain's at?  I know at my job, 4 men lost their jobs on  Fri night.. all have over 20years in...not good. There is no tolerance right now anywhere, if they can get you, you are done.
FACT
           FDIC is belly up... so I also saw that We lost 5 more banks on Fridayhttp://www.fdic.gov/bank/individual/failed/banklist.html      please again prepare for the unexpected.

Fact:  The crash of 29' corrected about 63-64% when it finally decided to turn and it could happen again.

I am currently remaining bearish.. We would have to go past 1200 for me to bow to the Bulls right now. I also have another turn coming in the next 7-10 trading days... and it is for a decent move to happen on this one. either way, I am holding my position, the volume will have to drastically increase for me to bail before then.   Futures are up, right now, so have a great trading day, Later >L

Bulls and Balloon's!

Cool, we only lost 36,000 jobs on top of the other 25-30 million people out there that do not have a job, or have been off work for over 2 years.  9.7% unemployment...don't ya love it. but hey Oil is on a role, Up, UP , and Away on my beautiful, my beautiful balloon!  Way up in the air, I see those great big bulls, riding high again, on those beautiful balloons. Now I want you to just picture that in your Minds Eye..... can you see what I see... the basket is getting really full, of cow shit... what are they going to do with all of it, OH, NO, the balloon is swaying, the bulls are fighting  over a beautiful Cow that they just spotted down on earth...They begin hitting horns, and the basket sways more.... you get the picture... Now oil is heading up, what for?  How can anyone be happy with this forecast...Weather...LOL!  what an excuse...then they bring Jack on..he's a hoot Jack Barootie..ie..ie...  I just know that when its all said and done...the cow shit is going to be everywhere, and who's gonna clean it all up...yep U and I... this is funny... but I would now be buying seriously to the downside... I am... have a good wkend. all.. Dollar is up..Yes! STP, is kicking good hope you made some fast cash on that RK,  (I am really a neutral bear/bull) I hope most of you really understand that, I know I sound like a really angry bear, I am not, I expect the unexpected,  the problem with the job market is, that the good full time positions are gone, these people are either thru their unemplyment and fell off the # system, or they just finally settled for lesser paying jobs or took part time work, or several part time jobs... its all sad if you ask me...they lie in such unhonerable ways! Labor Sec'y Solis even brought her chart with her.. what a good 3rd grade teacher would do... show her pupils how the graph has gone down...LOL!  Shit just landed on her...LOL!   have a good wkend again... later >L

SEED

Well, as the old saying goes "If you can't beat them Join them", so again, I have thrown in the towel...I have Bear Depression...its because I have had to come out of my den early...its just not fair!  Most stocks had some kind of up move today...Yea Bulls, I have to bow to you even if it is low volume...thats when it really hurts...but again, this is what makes trading so unique and fun...  My new shift is just kicking my A--. But I managed to get two great trades in short and sweet this morning... Since NO ONE commented....I guess everyone is on vacation...I am chatting to myself again..baaaa humm bug...LOL!  Really, I think that most of you who where already Bulls(RK,C), I think you did fine on your own...   I got a nice pop out of MNKD, and SEED, I was in and out pretty fast, with 4% gains.. not bad... sure don't get that in your savings accounts today... but I like those quick little jabs...fast $$...  So, I still like them both very short term... I like SEED better... I also like and old trade STP, short term... it is sitting on 50dma as support... but could go to $14.50 in next day or two... OK all, hope all of you are fine out there in Cyber land...later>L

Oh, those Bulls!

They are stampeding again, those bulls just do not know how to let us bears have a great winter do they!... Time to reflect in my den today, and I woke up to see that they had destroyed my trendline..so now we are back to the scenerio that we had a month ago and thats the 1121-26 area on S&P  if we break that... well, it does not matter...I was stopped out today anway, the towel was tossed,,,, we have to finish this up move , so why keep banging my brain against bull horns I said..so I am not in any trades again at this time... I like alot of things but I know something lurks out in the darkness that I am scared of....LOL!  Scaredy cat that I am I will just be patient again.. like most of you are..and some of you are to the upside and congrats to you all. I am sorry I could not have helped you in your trading... let alone my own..so I am feeling left out, but hey I had a great 09', 2010 has just been crazy, and yes I am down bad, and now even down worse in $$$.. but thats trading. You have to be like the Olympic athletes and realize its not always Gold, at the end, sometimes you hit the dirt, and it hurts. Its just how you trade the game. We went over all these scenerio's a few postings back, so none of this was new news to any of you readers. I am going to look for some short but sweet trades so you can try to make some fast $$.. so I will go do that, and hopefully have an update before the opening bell..have a good evening...>L

Higher we go...~~

Its been awhile since I actually had the time to run some #'s of my own.. The last pivot point that I had was back in Jan around the 7th, and that did not completely work out.. I was off by 5 days and the Peak did not occur till 14th.  So, I have been running off of several other fib time series that I run, and they haven't been too bad either, but this call lately on the fibs well Ithink it is off by several weeks...  I could be wrong but my new Pivot Point came out  with two sets of #'s  March 5th, and March 16th.    I ran the first from my original call that did not pan out till around a week later, for a PP high, so now we are looking for a PP low...and it could go like this.. we Peak, possibly in the next few days..then we do a larger 4th wave, then thats the PPlow for  march 5 then we have PP high next and that could be on the 14th...that would end the final move up that we need for final 5th wave.  It is really going to hurt my back pocket if this scenerio trends out...but at least its logical.  The other is supply and demand, and right now short term demand is up...so this leads me to believe the above scenerio...as far as futures go right now..Copper has boomed since the Chilean earthquake hit...so metals should have a boost ..obviously they already do...OK, hope everyone enjoyed the olympics, its finally over...snow has been removed and trading should be in full bloom this Mon. morning.. good luck to everyone..Happy Trading..>L