Monday, August 9, 2010

Correlation Between Wheat and the $SPX

Now some of you know that I am an old farm girl.. I was over at HOBS several months ago, telling a few traders over there how I tend to watch the weather charts and had noticed how all the rain was effecting the farming industry, notably Wheat and Corn. I had read several urgent articles from farmers magazine that the corn industry would suffer severe Root Rot... basically that means that corn stalk still grows, but the roots begin to surface to get out of the water... this is not good... because when the rain halts the roots are now exposed, and dry and rot.. so loss of corn on the ear and possible loss of the whole stalk of corn.  Wheat on the other hand  will just lay down from all the rain and wind.. it is very good at standing back up..but like a weed it grow fast with alot of moisture making a thin stalk to stand up with, so with heavy rains and wind it breaks or bends, again this makes the moisture build up under the wheat making it rot and wilt. Now the farmer will still combine these plants.. but the seed that they collect will most likely never make it to the store shelves as your favorite Bread, or cereal. Those grains get used as feed to animals most of the time. There are different classifications of grains of course because shit happens like this, but the farmer who is able to leave their crop in the field to dry out the most will get a better price. Grains are sold by bushels not by weight for that reason, but the less moisture in the seed the farmer gets a better price by its grade usually. It cost General Mills alot of $$ to dry out the seed so they can grind it into flour to make then turn around and add water to make crereal.. seems silly but thats how it goes, because you still have to store the grain and the moisture inside the kernel will still make it rot.  Popcorn for instance.. to Pop it has to have moisture, did you know that... but it has to be the perfect moisture content to pop.. I don't remember the % of moisture needed but thats an example of what makes Popcorn different from field corn that we use everyday. OK, now that you have learned about wheat and corn, who cares right......WRONG, there is a strong correlation betw Grains and the stock market that I have found.. I am sure someone else out there has written a book on it for all that I know.. I have never looked for one let me put it that way... but
I had mentioned to all of them at the time that corn and wheat should shoot thru the roof... I myself being a real dumb ass at times like right now.. just forgot about the research that I had done, but I also did not realize how many ETF's there are right now for Corn, wheat, rice, you name it its there including cattle... I just found them today.. anyway.. RK had given me Carl Futia's site and just a few min's ago I went over to see his end of day post.. and I found the yearly Wheat chart up he had.. at the same time I am looking at the $SPX and thought I would post and show all of you the correlation....Now if you can post your own chart then bring up the wheat it works better of course but notice how wheat spiked and the market fell... we are very close to that same scenerio again... very close... my stochastics are mixed as you can see on my 5yr chart... the volume is weak..but again.. back in 07 volume was even weaker and we rose to all new Highs. This is also one of the things that is bugging me right now... weak volume does not mean we are going down... as per my post this afternoon on Apple.. up  $1.66  GE was pretty much flat in my opinion... and TZA started sliding into a possible 3rd wave down... We really could go to 1250 and it would not surprise me at all. So, I will try to update as soon as the post is up.. but I do not expect much out of it as usual..>L

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