Current Bear Map!~~

• my first attemp to use a paint brush..ugggggg

1150

Wow, bad news is good news, did I say that right?  LOL! You have just got to smile when it comes right down to it. At last the magic number will be hit today, and will we go higher~~  hey that is a good question. The PPT team had to come to the rescue this morning... Futures are very bright.. So, Cheers to the 1150!  we have to break out of this triangle to the upside to get out of this Rut....  Fast $$ is set and most of the profits are already taken but check out MMYT, RTP, NFLX, and little stocks like ARNA... SLV could break out this morning... Gold broke 1300$$ pre-mkt.  $1350 is next..and higher.  so Slv.. should start a major uptrend.  thats it.. have a nice wkend...>L

FWT

Here's my theory that L might not like. It is called FWT: Federal Wave Theory. EWT is what nature does. FWT might be what it does when you hook it up to a money printing machine that is supported by the army, marines, and the air force.

Ok, fun theories aside: My daily and weekly models are both in buy. My next turn dates are 9/28 and 10/19. If anything changes to my signals I will try to update during the trading day. If no change I might then just try and update sometime after close.

"The End Of The RECESSION" "The New DEPRESSION"

Hi everyone, I have not listened to one word yet from our President I have instead decided to just watch the mkt fluctuate with his emotions!.. He raises his hands the mkt goes up, he gets serious and down to his answer the mkt goes down.. see sawing with tension so tight well, even a tight rope walker wouldn't walk across it from fear it could break.  I have sold all my stock positions while this was going on, little ones and big ones.. I had bought several on Fri, and they got nice bounces from all the "EXCITEMENT".

I feel the set up for a turn is going "GREAT"! as Tony the Tiger would say!  Some of you out there think I am nuts, and hey you have that right, luckily for myself I am not the only "Grizzly", out there.  I realize the so called chance that I am taking, and the stance that I am taking.  See, the P&F charts just went off the map, pointing to an all new high on the $SPX! 1320 to be exact!   I am excited!  This is the Best Jerry Springer Show I have ever Not listened too!  Just watching the hand gestrures and the $SPX chart in front of me tells it all... bouncing with emotions like a kid at his first ball game!!!!   Now Rr, I am that kid right now...

The set up goes like this, we broke 1137, that set us up for a great final 5th wave of wave C, and it takes us to the best H&S pattern I have seen in yrs.  I am looking for 1145-50 on $SPX, the $VIX is bouncing all over.. and actually seems to be making a nice bottoming pattern...   The bulls are peaking, this "Obama Hour", reminds me of a Soap Opera that my mum loved to watch everyday..."As The World Turns", sponsored by Obama care!  I may never Post another Post on here again...and it has been fun believe me, so to all of you I wish you the best... Bull or Bear!  I am about to go into Hibernation!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Head and Shoulder's?????

 First let me say Thank You to my most loyal buddy of all Rr, for taking over some of the responsibility of driving this blog, I hope he continues to help when I am very busy in the fall mo's a-head w/my personal job schedule. So with that Thanks again Rr!!!

Head and Shoulders??  Well, I see two of them that have formed..  Back in Jan 2010 we hit 1150 area, and then in April we made a new high in what we will Call Wave B right now, then we fell into July and now we are still fighting an uphill battle to finish either this Larger H&S pattern at or around the 1150 range   or the smaller H&S pattern that formed from mid June's 1130ish area then fell into July and formed its Head in August around the 1125ish area then fell into late Aug, and now forming the right shoulder as I am typing.  So that is the two Bearish H&S patterns that I see, lets see the bullish side...

Bullish H&S pattern is inverted, and to me does not follow correct form, but it is still part of the chat around other rooms.. left shoulder 1050ish finished June 2010, Head formed in July 1010 and now Right Shoulder formed end of Aug at 1050ish again, and now we are banging on the Rally door and seem to be stuck with some Flakes hanging upside down... LOL!  Hey, we really could be in this pattern, but the Bears still have one more good H&S forming on a larger degree if the bulls can break this 1130ish area significantly.. and that is the 1150 right Shoulder... I am not a great fan of this inverted H&S sighting, it looks more like a GHOST pattern to me, funny that half time show on CNBC with Peter Najerian and Melissa just chatted about this, and so did a friend of mine chat about it for several hours last night..so what do all of you think?  H&S or a Ghost... Oct, is just around the corner.. Ghost patterns fall hard when they complete...we will just have to wait this one out... I personally am buying little bits of QID at this time... in preperation for the Larger 1150 H&S pattern.  We are also approaching my 30 day turn, in the beginning of Oct 4-6 area.. so do we bounce and make it look like it is a topping pattern and then zoom up to 1150... Mkt is having a hard time itself figuring all of this out...We just have to play the waiting game.. if you have any fall cleaning or painting to do I would get it done in the next few wks... I think Oct, is going to be a Ghostly mkt ....Boo boo...have a good wkend.>L

my 2 cents

I have been telling you about my model well it is still in daily buy as of today. My weekly model which is not as reliable yet as daily is turning bullish and if no reversal by end of week it will give a buy. However I noticed that it did that back in spring 2008 during wave 2.

So my model keeps us on right side of Market. But I have to say that this does not feel to me as a new leg up of bull market, but feels more like a hopeful wave 2. What I have learned though is not to be on the side of what I feel or think, and that's why I like my model: It has no feelings :)

I will look more into all coming turn dates later, but I am seeing a major one on or around 12/21. And I would like to speculate that it will be some sort of a tradeable bottom.

Short and Sweet

Futures are currently down, looking for support at 1089 area on $SPX, and Yes, Rr, I have move down for  at least a few more days... http://www.mypivots.com/dn/?symbol=100  that should cover any Resistance and Support areas if you are daytrading today. Lets just X our fingers we get out of this all together, I would really like for a small crash about now, not the large one but just a taste to scare a few of my friends..LOL!  OK still looking to resume to the upside after this move... count your waves!!!!!..>L

Momentum...

My apologies to everyone.. my cable line went out at 1a.m. this morning... and of course its just an outing in your area. It lasted till 5.p.m  or just a few min. ago. I have to say, perfect timing I did not get a whole lot of homework done, but my e-mail to all of you that I was working on is null and void now. It was a reminder of what the futures where already doing, and that I had a possible 3 of 3 scenerio that could happen. So, today was that 3 of 3 of C or 3 of wave 5 up. Now, we are inching closer to the completion of either wave 3 up or of wave 5 up... thats the two scenerios that I have for this evening... Most other analysts like EWT have us in a Wedge that turns and reverses.. sort of the same pattern we had in 2007, and I think we had the same in 2000, these  reverse wedges seem to occurr alot in wave B's.. at least that's what I have noticed over the yrs. so where does it all end.. well guys and gals that is a good question.. I have since Fri, indicators saying we are turning to go south, but with the MOMENTUM on the Bulls side right now, the corrective C wave we are in is only at 50% of the drop from "07",  I have to tell all of you I have never seen a C wave not do a 61.8% retrace.  So, the real question is, are we in a B wave still or are we in the C of B...???  So to break that down all B waves are usually 3 waves.. or 5 waves right.. being that we could be in a Larger degree B wave correction of Wave A.. we could have a 3 wave B wave.. consistis of an A, B and a C wave.. the wedge pattern acts like a B wave.. then we shoot up into C if that is the case then 1150 is the target or higher... to end the B wave in a Cycle degree.... my thoughts say that is the target.. my gut says it too..  1130 is acting as resistance and could end the top of wave B and we would then need to fall into the minuette to minor degree wave C down.. then we could still shoot back up into the final C wave of wave B... have I confused you yet... its crazy sometimes.. I am just going thru these off the top of my head as I am typing.. I wish I had a way to hand draw out what I see.. but hopefully you all have enough smarts to draw out these scenerios that I have given... just hand draw them.. gives you a better perspective of what I am trying to say. OK..  I am sorry about no updates.. I will bitch to WOW cable for all of us ... but it will do not good.. LOL!  Ok, be good have a good night.. if I see something unusual by morning I will update your mailboxes...before opening bell.. night all..>L

$S&P

Todays mkt action seems to almost be done, it has repeated the same pattern though, that is my only concern. the funny thing is a trend line that I had drawn from Jan 15, across to June 21 high held this move up today..  and all of those highs  are with in 6 days of each other, so we still have price/time to go higher or move sideways before we correct.. that is and has been the trend for Major and Minor tops.. I should have shared that with you sooner... kinda goes with the McClaren post... and my 30 day turns... even though most of those do so with in the first 5 days of the month.  If you have quest. just ask, I am typing as fast as I can, I have overslept every day this wk.. I was going to get out of my shorts this morning but just could not muster up the courage to do it.. I actually had to laugh at myself.. I did set a sell on MMYT..  and it did hit my target.. but I am sad to say that CRUS did not go with it.. it was 5cents shy of my target.. I am pissed to say the least. Lets just X my fingers that Apple wants them.. LOL!.  OK, so are we topping.. I have 5 waves up you two, heavy resistance and some stochs that say sell.. Not all are on sell yet, but I will go with RR's sells and buys from now on... thats it got run, have a good night..cya..>L

One last move?

Ok, I have not the time to go check out anything anyone has updated tonight so here's what I see, we have support at or around 1088-90 area,  If we are in a 4th wave still??? we have only done a,b, and we need to finish c,d,and e. so that means we will still bounce to finish either the c of 2 to be done to start going down in 3 of 3 of 1 of "C", did ya get that..LOL!  hope so...  or we still need that last 5th wave if we have not already finished that, and resistance right now sits at 1115.54.. thats on my 1yr.dly chart. my stochs still say buy but again look good for only a few days... I have not checked the volume so someone please update later what you have.. there is of course one more thing... resisitance still sits at 1115.. but this move could be just wave 2 of wave 3 of wave c..we could move fast and furiously to the upside.  so be very careful.. again.. 1150-1250 are not out of the ? right now if we are light volume situation.. ppl are still on vacation right now.. Next wk I expect serious mkt action... got to run. have a nice evening.. will update your mailbx in morning. goodnight.>L

4th wave...

Short and Sweet, todays mkt action was a definite 4th wave of possible wave C on wave 2 of wave 3.. or it could be wave b of  2 of  wave 5 of larger degree "C" that may have never finished at what we originally thought at 1130.. So, where do I think we really are.. toss a coin.. really the bulls think they are back, and todays mkt action really to me.. means it really is a coin toss. Bernanke still weighs on their minds heavily, did he go too far in buying treasuries? and now buying more?  Is our country bankrupt?  Bernanke really has not been bullish at all, on the contrary?....believe me all of you know why I  think the way I do.. right now lets say we drop a bit more to 1080ish area, but I am looking for a bouncing ball move here really cause we need to finish this 4th wave minuette degree move.. so up and down for at least half the day tomorrow.. then final 5th wave up to 1115-1118 area or if we break that to the 1130 area.. and to me it looks like we could do that and if so.. it will form a nice looking H&S pattern.. so many want to say the W pattern and that is bullish... I personally think the Updat that RR put up for McClaren could be very accurate... see I am all over the place.. but.. remember we could still be in that larger degreee 2nd wave of C down.. and we still need to do all five waves up of a final minor C wave... but my stochastics do not say that.. 10yr daily on sell.. in a few days.. but my 30 day rally month is on... so as confusing as I am making this right now.. just try to take 30 min. and read what I have said carefully and go over the patterns.. if I am wrong let me know what you think...I am not perfect as all of you know.. this mkt is tuffer to call everyday.. Oh, go check out Peter Pans update on Safehaven.. it was really good too.. Rr thanks for the McClaren.. have a good night all. Hope you all enjoyed your wkend..later>L

Last Move....

I was over at Bloodwines community the other night.. going over a few scenerios with Rk, and with the gang over there. One of my scenerios and of course the one that I really did not think would trade out happens to be the one that is trouncing my bank account right now.  Needless to say, I did not know that the Main Man was giving his speech last night.. again..I am sorry, if I had known.  It was a total surprise for me. He always makes the market rise... so now all I can say is we are in a larger and I mean larger degreee "C", wave up... this wave really could go from 1080 ish all the way to 1250.  I am sorry everyone, I only have one solution if you have extra cash on the side.. buy silver. I set my sell button the other day on AGQ, and it sold of course before I woke up last night at around 4:30 p.m.  I was not feeling well, so I actually slept the whole day away, and of course that is my usual schedule, but after I got up I noticed what a bad mistake I had made in selling, so I will be getting back in at the opening this morning SLV is cheaper, and either trade will do.. My apologies to all of you, >L   Thank You Rr for your comment appreciate that. one more thing, alot of other blogs this morning, after I posted this, are saying we are going up till 2011, yes, we could, butttt do not get too caught up in what they are saying just yet!  The Jobs report is still on the Bears side, unless they lie, and that at this moment would not surprise me any. Rr, step away I am going to tell a story now,LOL!  The only reason the Chinese had good Job numbers and GDP numbers is because they have lied for our administration, to save the value of the Treasuries/Bonds that they have purchased to save our ass's!  Yes, I truely do believe a good million or more went back to work, but they only did so, because our Warehouses are Empty!  I know, I see the trucks I chat with the drivers, and I know because of the shear Volume of packages that come thru our system, they are to restock warehouses, People! Halloween, Thanksgiving, and X-Mas is just around the corner!  This time of year is always, and I repeat always like this on America's Highways and byway's. People always buy clothing for school, these #'s are tainted believe me, and if you do not that is ok, go stop by the biggest warehouse around you take a pair of binoculars and peer in...You will see what I mean.. go ask the Walmart guy if he has extra Cat food in the back, no mamm he told me, I said your kidding right, no mamm it has to be ordered, we have to order everything till Nov. then they will stock us with extra everything...LOL!  I know 2 managers at Wally's and both told the same story, and get this, they are going to play hard ball this yr on RETURNS after X-Mas!  I thought now how to Piss of the people more, no stock or No re-stock...LOL! I, tell ya, they can and will hold this market up with CHINA, thats how it was done before.. but just remember one thing... we have to still come back down for a wave 2 in this C wave.. so if your like me and feeling alittle poorer right now, Just relax for wave 2 down.. and that could happen some time today to flush the toilet on all the crap they are telling us!  Good Night!>L